AIPAC, here we again

Obama's declaration of Israel accepting pre-1967 borders in his Middle East speech hardly surprised me. It's the US stance. But with the arrival of Bibi the next day, I could only surmise that Bibi will storm in the White House and give Obama a earful. Which he did.

Yet, I was unsettled by Obama's speech on Thursday though. Nothing new but... the "mutually agreed land swaps" had me wondering. What did that mean?

Obama cleared up that issue at AIPAC. Demographics have changed since 1967 and then I agreed with his point. Still, if you look at the demographic map of Israel (an example here, not great but gives you a picture), how is this going to work? Being such a vulnerable state, Israel needs security buffer. A 2-hour drive between the West Bank and the Mediterranean is hardly defensible. Military invaders could choke and separate Israel into North and South. Furthermore, much of Israel's Jewish population tend to favor living in central Israel.

Really, I think, the country is just too small to be divided in a way that can satisfy the need for both parties. Israelis (and Diaspora Jews) want to keep as much of the land they can that they won in 1967 and have a state of substantial size for defense. The Palestinians have a much higher birth rate than the Israelis and they need large enough of land to support its rapidly growing population.

Aside from border issues, what is more important to me is the recognition of the state of Israel by Hamas, who wants to join with the PA in governing Palestine. Israel is already willing to make some concessions but Hamas is taking the "my way or the highway" route. That just doesn't get anyone anywhere for the peace deal. Yes, it is a terrorist group and it will always hate Israel. But Israel isn't going to make its move on the chessboard without security assurance should Hamas agree to recognize the state of Israel and bombard it with rockets themselves. Israelis need to feel safe first, diplomatic- and military-wise.

Obama and other foreign leaders need to pressure Hamas. Strangling Gaza hasn't been too effective in shutting down that government (but it has weaken it to the point where it saw the need to join forces with PA).

I know this whole argument isn't much different from the past and, so here it goes again with more affirmative points. Should I be excited? Not quite. We're used to this cycle of starting and stopping. But I do expect Obama to be tougher than his predecessors to get this peace thing going. He got the healthcare reform passed and that was tough for our free enterprise, democratic country.

Earn your Nobel Peace Prize now, President Obama.